Thursday, August 17, 2017

Reconfiguring the American political landscape

Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell has occupied the upper chamber for as long as I've been alive. Every six years, Kentucky Republicans dutifully return him to office, and his colleagues have honored him as the ultimate Establishment Republican by awarding him the position of majority leader.

For those who want to see the Stupid Party burned to the ground and replaced by what Trump was groping for during the presidential campaign, the following graph should be heartening. It shows the percentages of Reuters-Ipsos poll respondents, by partisan affiliation, who approve* of president Trump and of senator McConnell (n = 26,772 and 5,127, respectively):


Their overall approval ratings are nearly equal, with Caesar enjoying an edge of less than 3 points on Brutus. Trump gets there on the backs of Republicans. In contrast, while nearly half of McConnell's support comes from non-Republicans, scarcely half of Republicans support him.

Trump is no longer a novelty. He's been in office for eight months and he's been the most talked about person in the world for years now. For all his trials and tribulations, his political vision is replacing that of McConnell and his coterie among the red deme's rabble.

Some of those who called themselves Republicans five years ago no longer do so even though their high opinion of McConnell hasn't wavered. And many of those who couldn't stand McConnell and wouldn't wear a scarlet R five years ago, still can't stand McConnell today but do now consider themselves Republicans on account of their president.

* The Trump poll asks about "approval", the McConnell poll about "favorability". "Mixed feelings" responses are excluded.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Get Z Trump supporters were far more than Clinton supporters (and slightly more so than Sanders supporters)

As we wrap up with the Hispanic Heritage Foundation's surveys of high school students in 2016 (a sincere thanks again to Sid for pointing it out), we'll look beyond the strong preference for Trump over Clinton among non-Hispanic whites and look at the enthusiasm gap among those expressing a preference.

There's nothing edgy about being a pawn of the power structure, every major branch of which supported Clinton without reservation. The choice is between defiance, self-confidence, and reclamation on the one hand and perpetual, humorless tsk-tsking on the other. How many young people want to devote all their creative energies into finding different ways of saying "that is not okay"?

The primary survey asked students about their voting plans for the 2016 general election. Most chose the option "not eligible" on account of not being eighteen by November 8. There were 14,712, however, who would be of age on election day.

The following graph shows the distribution of votes among whites who either supported Trump or Clinton by how they described their voting plans:


It's worth reiterating how uninspiring Clinton was. The distribution among those who supported either Clinton or Sanders by the same:


Trump still revved the engine even harder than Sanders did. The same among those who supported either Trump or Sanders:


That Sanders wins across the board is a little misleading here, since preferences for Republicans were spread across several candidates while preferences for Democrats were theoretically spread across three but in actuality between just two (O'Malley's support is reported as "0%" at all levels of intention--even Christie and ¡Jabe! do better than that!).

Unfortunately the survey doesn't offer any insight into how Gen Z would've voted if the contest was between Trump and Sanders.

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Deus Vult


The Nazism and the swastika have to go. A modest suggestion for a replacement:
- The Nazis mostly killed Europeans. The Crusaders mostly did not. Repelling Saracens is relevant. Conquering Celts is not.

- Many of those who make up the Alt Right's prime recruitment base had grandfathers and great-grandfathers who fought the Nazis. Vanishingly few are descended from those who fought the Crusaders, and those who are have to go back anyway.

- The Crusades were about reclamation. The Nazis were, after a short time, about conquest. Effective ethnostates work. Colonial societies, not so much. The Crusades fit into a framework of white nationalism and the "14", but not one of white supremacy and the "88". The latter fits a Nazi framework, and it's a disaster.

- While the martial aspect of the Alt Right is masturbatory--at least for now--the combative imagery is still important. Warfare in the 12th century lends itself much better to the virile virtues--strength, honor, courage, mastery--men are grasping for today than warfare in the 20th century does. This is awe-inspiring. This is nauseating.

- Christianity is fecund. Vague spirituality or outright atheism is not.

- The Crusades evoke a sort of pan-Europeanism. The Nazis evoke civilization-destroying European civil war.

- The Templars' ultimate undoing was the work of an Establishment power structure--both the Church and the State--that putatively had the same objectives as the Crusaders while in reality had been working to destroy them for decades. There's a sharp resonance in that.

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Many young BernieBros defected to Trump

As it turns out, the Hispanic Heritage Foundation also conducted a massive nationwide poll during the primaries in 2016.

Looking at non-Hispanic whites (n = 57,196), Sanders obliterates Clinton among students who support a Democrat,84%-16% in a two-way race. Trump gets three times the support Cruz--who runs a distant second among Republicans--does.

Where this gets interesting is in the transition from the primaries to the general election, specifically with regards to what those Sanders supporters did once he was out. We're doing algebra with two separate variables on each side of the equation, so we have to make an assumption about one of them.
The results of a few of those possible assumptions follow.

If we assume students supporting a non-Trump Republican broke 25% for Clinton, 50% for Trump, and 25% either sitting out or voting third-party and 25% of Sanders supporters sitting out or voting third-party, we get Trump beating Clinton by an astounding 76%-24% among whites who supported Sanders in the primary.

If we assume students supporting a non-Trump Republican broke 10% for Clinton, 80% for Trump, and 10% either sitting out or voting third-party and 10% of Sanders supporters sitting out or voting third-party, we still get Trump beating Clinton 60%-40% among whites who supported Sanders in the primary.

Even if we assume every single non-Trump Republican backed Trump, we get Sanders supporters splitting almost exactly evenly between Trump and Clinton in the general election assuming corresponding full general election participation among Sanders supporters.

If we take it to a risible extreme and assume that every single non-Trump Republican backed Trump while half the Sanders supporters sat out the general election, we end up with a sizable minority of those former Sanders supporters who do vote in the general backing Trump, with Clinton winning them 70%-30% in this scenario.

No matter what assumptions are made, a staggering percentage of Sanders supporters end up going to Trump. Many of us, myself included, hoped we'd see more of that from the actual electorate but assumed--accurately, as it turned out--that most adults are too stuck in the partisan loyalty trap to crossover to someone with the wrong letter next to his name.

The left-right/Democrat-Republican/liberal-conservative paradigm ("boomer politics") is on the way out. A cosmopolitan-identitarian/globalist-localist paradigm is the best bet to replace it. That transition will occur as the boomers die off and generation Z comes of age.

Alternatively--or more likely, simultaneously--it's hard to overstate just how bad a candidate Hillary Clinton was, especially in the eyes of adolescents.

On one hand, an uncharismatic, scolding lesbian schoolmarm with the most unfashionable sartorial signature imaginable who spends half her time tsk-tsking about the forbidden things Trump has said and done.

On the other, a god-emperor catching nuclear bombs fired at him from the Vatican, the White House, Hollywood, and Brussels, mocking those who deployed them, and then throwing them back to detonate on the places from whence they came, while grabbing HBs by the pussy during his down time.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

How Gen Z 'voted' relative to adults in 2016

There are a couple more miles yet to get out of the Hispanic Heritage Foundation's huge presidential preference survey administered to high school students across the US in the Fall of 2016.

The following map* shows, by state, how much more (less) Trumpish Gen Z 'voters' were than the actual electorate was. The subsequent table shows Trump's share among Zs and adults in a two-way race for those expressing a preference (that is, if Trump's share is 56%, then Clinton's is 44%, etc):


StateAdult%Z%Z%+/(-)
Colorado477124
Oregon446724
Pennsylvania517423
Missouri608121
Minnesota496920
Maryland365418
Maine486618
Montana617817
Illinois415817
Iowa557117
Nebraska637916
Kansas617615
Wyoming759015
Georgia536715
Idaho698112
Kentucky667812
Virginia475912
Oklahoma698011
Vermont344511
Ohio546410
West Virginia738210
Indiana60699
Arizona52608
Wisconsin51598
Massachusetts35427
North Carolina52586
Tennessee64696
Texas55605
Michigan51554
Washington41454
District of Columbia473
New York39412
South Dakota66671
North Dakota70711
Alabama65650
Louisiana6059(1)
Arkansas6463(2)
Mississippi5955(4)
New Mexico4540(5)
Connecticut4337(6)
Florida5044(6)
California3422(12)
South Carolina5745(12)
Delaware4425(19)
Nevada4924(25)
Utah6335(28)

The correlation between how Zs and adults voted in a two-way race is .75 (p = .00) at the state level. This, again, suggests a broad plausibility to the poll's findings--or at least indicates that if there are flaws, they occur in the same general direction across the board.

Through the Southwest and in much of the South, where the children are a lot Sunnier than the elderly Ice People are, there are reasons to be bearish on the America First's prospects. If the rift between California and Core America feels large now, just wait another a decade or two. Irreconcilable differences are what separate countries are for.

Georgia is a salient outlier. It stems from the poll finding Georgia's whites going 95%-5% for Trump in a two-way race. That looks implausible on the face of it, and it probably is, though the poll sampled 867 white students in the state.

Speaking of Core America, its children are based. If we were feeling nefarious we could almost carve out a future rump state from that map--stretching from the northern mountain states, the great plains, the upper Midwest, and finally through Appalachia--for Core America to call its own.

Minnesota almost got there this time. It's a question of "when", not "if"--unless of course the Vikings fall and the former state becomes the Somaliland of the western hemisphere.

Parenthetically, while McMuffin is a confounder in Utah, there is something else going on there. The poll sampled 528 students in the state. Just under 60% are non-Hispanic white, while over one-quarter are Hispanic. Is Utah undergoing Nevadization that rapidly? If Mormons invite the whole world... well, you know how that story ends.

* No data was collected from Hawaii, Alaska, or New Jersey, and Rhode Island's total student sample is a whopping 55, of which only 26 expressed a desire to vote if able. That figure is far smaller than that of other states. Consequently, it has also been excluded here.

++Addition++From commenter Halvorson, who is skeptical of the findings:
I don't believe these numbers. I've done some homework looking at the results of the Minnesota mock election, which showed a tie, and its sample seems representative. The 70 largest schools in the state have 50.7% of all students and 47.9% of voters in the mock. Trump's rural base is not under sampled.

In Iowa's mock high and middle school election Trump won 45.6-35.6, which closely mirrors the actual result.

Both of these states have rising minority populations, so just to break even Trump has to be doing a little better than white teenagers than their parents. But it's not by a gargantuan amount.
A healthy dose of skepticism is recommended. As he notes, even if these results are overstated, there are signals from every direction that the current crop of high schoolers isn't the same self-loathing, SJW-aping emo cohort that millennials are.